A mysterious, wealthy, stranger flips a coin with a 35.0% chance of “heads”.
If he gets heads, he assigns a payout drawn from a log-normal distribution with a mean of 500.0 and a P10/P90 ratio of 5.0.
The stranger offers to sell you the payout, if any, at a cost of 200.0 dollars.
The mysterious stranger's brother, Bob, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's niece, Sally, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's cousin, Joe, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's nephew, Mike, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's neighbor, Cassandra, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's co-worker, Katie, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other cousin, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Joe Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other nephew, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Mike Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other neighbor, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Cassandra Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other co-worker, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Katie Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other brother, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
The mysterious stranger's other niece, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Sally Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr Jr is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
If you accept all the offers:
On average, you will achieve a net payout of $0.00.
You'll lose money about 0.00% of the time.
You'll lose a bunch of money about 0.00% of the time.
You'll gain a bunch of money about 0.00% of the time.
Here's the result distribution: