A mysterious, wealthy, stranger flips a coin with a 35.0% chance of “heads”.
If he gets heads, he assigns a payout drawn from a log-normal distribution with a mean of 500.0 and a P10/P90 ratio of 5.0.
The stranger offers to sell you the payout, if any, at a cost of 200.0 dollars.
The mysterious stranger's brother, Bob, approaches you and offers a deal: for a cost of 20.0 dollars , they will peek at his coin and tell you what they see before you have to make your decision. However, Bob is a known liar: in fact they tell the truth only 70.0% of the time.
If you accept all the offers:
On average, you will achieve a net payout of $0.00.
You'll lose money about 0.00% of the time.
You'll lose a bunch of money about 0.00% of the time.
You'll gain a bunch of money about 0.00% of the time.
Here's the result distribution: